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February 23, 2024The Diplomatic Coup by China
February 23, 2024Why are Pakistan’s Fortunes Running in Circles? What Is the Way Forward?
February 23, 2024Ambassador G. R. Baluch
Ukraine War – The Collapse of the World Order
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th February 2022 was thought to last for few weeks; to perhaps few months; however, the conflict has defied all predictions by political pundits and military analysts alike. The bloody war in Ukraine rages on inflicting tragic loss of precious human lives; to both the parties to the conflict. As per the estimates of a US general the Ukraine and Russia would have suffered at least 100000.00 Military casualties each, including wounded and killed till 2022. There have been reports of thousands of civilian causalities particularly on Ukrainian side as a result of Russian indiscriminate targeting of civilian neighborhoods as well as civilian infrastructure and Government installations. Russian unrelenting bombardment of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure has decimated, energy grid stations, communication installations, dams, bridges and industrial complexes. President Putin’s “Special Operations “according to several military analysts turned into Putin’s “Leningrad”, as the Russian Columns of hundreds of tanks, APCS and support vehicles which laid the Siege to the Ukrainian capital Kiev, were destroyed and turned into junk by Ukrainian gruella troop detachments along the roads and arties leading to Kyiv. As per estimates Russia has lost over 2000 tanks which constitute half of its operational inventory of tanks. Looking at the military asymmetry between Russia and Ukraine; the Western Powers offered a safe escape to the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. President Zelenskyy a comedian turned politicians surprised his friends and foes alike, when he declined western offer of safe escape and said “I need ammunition and not a ride”. Using his media skills; he took his selfi in the Kyiv city center and declared “I am here, we are not putting down arms, we will be defending our country, because our weapon is truth, and our truth is that this is our land, our children, and we will defend all of this”. One year on; he proved his pledge with deeds; albeit at high price of loss of human lives and almost decimation of the entire civil infrastructure of his country by Russian Artillery, Missile and drone fire. He has come to symbolize as a War Time leader; who has not only galvanized his people but has successfully marshaled a formidable International diplomatic, financial and military support for the defense of his country. He has demonstrated an unprecedented courage to stay amongst his countrymen with his two children and wife in the war zone in the face of unrelenting Artillery missile and Drone attacks by Russia. He has indeed set a very high bar for the leadership of a country under siege by a formidable adversary.
It appeared an unequal contest between Mr. Zelenskyy and Mr. Putin. Mr. Putin a world statesman; who has been at the helm of affairs of Russian Republic for over two decades. He has built almost a cult like following in the Russian official and public spheres, on the one hand and the other, globally he has created image of an exceptional World statesman with extraordinary acumen of state craft as well as interstate relations in Peace and War alike. Zelenskyy a comedian turned public figure and a war hero for his beleaguered countrymen. As a country; Ukraine can simply not match the overall national power of Russia, with the biggest geographical area, three times the population of Ukraine. Russia sits on one of the largest Gas and petroleum deposits of the world, prides as the 3rd largest army in the world, biggest nuclear arsenal and an international diplomatic clout as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and with huge financial resources of its own. However, despite all his preponderance of power compared to Ukraine; President Putin’s personal Talisman came crashing down at home and abroad in the face of a youthful and brave leadership in the person of President Zelenskyy of course buoyed by Western Military, Financial and Diplomatic Support.
President Putin committed major Geopolitical miscalculations after the other, costing his country loss of hundreds of thousands of precious human lives, Billions of loss of oil and gas revenue, loss of military equipment and most gravelly he lost his personal image as a Global statesman who could play politics with finesse on the world Geo-Political Chessboard. Putin by embarking on his devastating military adventure against Ukraine; has helped NATO reemerge from what French President in 2019 called “braindead”, while the then US President Trump was quoted by several senior State department that in 2018 President Trump wanted the US pull out from NATO (since the NATO had outlived its utility.
He had forged friendly and cordial relations with the major European leaders which led the entire West European Continent dependence on Russian energy sources, thereby achieving an enormous Geo -Economic leverage in the European Sub continent. He grossly miscalculated Western European ability to take the risk of stoppage of gas and Petroleum Russia. The Russian cut the supply of gas and Petroleum has spurred the technology savvy Western economies have expedited the development and use of alternate energy, which would free them of dependence on Russian energy in the long term.
The war in Ukraine has exposed lack of military planning, logistics, coordination, low morale and uninspiring leadership of the Russian Army. So bad is the rot in the Russian Army that Putin had to outsource its military operation on the eastern war front to Private Mercenaries Wagner under notorious Evgeny Prigozhin which conscripted Russian Prisoners to fill up its rank and file. The Russian setback on the battle field also exposed the antiquated Russian weapon systems which would impact its future Arms exports in the world. Russia at one point was the second largest arms exporter in the world. India was its largest customer which bought 23% of its weapons for US $ 6.5 billion in the last 5 years.
While Putin’s narrative holds ground on account of unbridled NATO expansion. Nonetheless, in his quest to challenge NATO eastward expansion, which he considers an attempt by the Western Powers led by the US to impose a new Geo –Strategic Balance of Power in Europe poses existential threat to Russia. However, Putin’s response to this” existential threat” was a botched ‘Special Military Operation” against a smaller European neighbor, rather than using his enormous Geo –strategic, Geo economic and diplomatic leverage as a Global Power.
One of the justifications advanced by Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine has been a reference to some vague western Commitment in 1991 to Gorbachev that NATO will not be expended further east given by the then Secretary of state James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” in his meeting with the erstwhile Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 during the German unification process. However, this verbal commitment was not reduced to writing in any agreement. NATO continued to expand Eastward, Poland, Hungry, Czech Republic Bulgaria (1999), Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia (2004), Albania and Croatia (2009), Montenegro (2017) and North Macedonia (2020). His invasion of Ukraine has only added urgency to other smaller European countries to NATO security umbrella. Most recently Finland and Sweden the two Neutral countries in the cold war era have applied for membership of NATO and are very close to signing the agreement with NATO.
The east word expansion of NATO demonstrated opportunism on the part of the western powers, which wanted European Security architecture; completely dominated by NATO while disregarding genuine security concerns of the Russian Republic, the successor to the erstwhile USSR.
The east word expansion of NATO is strategically flawed on several counts; one; the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that unilateral approach to building a stable, and sustainable security architecture in Europe is not sustainable. Second; The premise of Western preponderance; runs counter to building a Multipolar world, which would be more peaceful, interdependent and sustainable to counter the mounting global challenges, including local conflicts, the threats posed by non-state actors, global warming, Food Security, Water Security, food Security and increasing health hazards due pandemics as well as other Natural disasters.
Putin’s Strategic miscalculations provided the Western Powers to come all guns blazing in support of Ukraine. NATO led by the US has provided Ukraine military equipment and other assistance worth over 100 Billion Dollars, while the cost of the promised Tanks from UK, Germany and the US are not counted. NATO has not allowed Ukraine to consider a ceasefire leading to peaceful settlement since, Ukraine is practically being bankrolled by the NATO countries. There would be implications for Ukraine in the long term, since the war debits have to be paid back. It would take hundreds of billions of dollars and many years to rebuild the Ukrainian civil infrastructure pulverized by the intense and indiscriminate artillery and Missile bombardment by Russia. Ukraine will have to live with a hostile Russia with security serious implications.
Europe got the maximum peace dividend as a result of the end of the cold war. The European economies thrived in the post-cold war era. A year of war in Ukraine is fast reversing the EU economic gains, as energy cost spiral out of control and inflation in most EU countries runs in double digits.
China which has been forging closing relations with Russia with the announcement of “Friendship without bounds” has been trading a rather cautious stance by way of observing UN sanctions regime against Russia and not providing lethal support to Russia so for. However, if it becomes clear to Beijing that the NATO led by the USA is using Ukrainian to impose Pax Americana in the world, in that case China could join Russia in confronting what Putin has termed as Western Hegemony of the world. The world could descend into another more lethal Global Power Confrontation, which could even pale the cold war era confrontation and further deepen political polarization and economic costs to the world as a whole. Given Putin’s repeated threats to use all military means (a veiled reference Russian Nuclear weapons) to confront what he calls “an existential threat to Russia. There has been reports that Russia might use Tactical Nuclear weapons if Ukraine forces try take back Crimea and other eastern areas which have been annexed by Russia. Unless all the Global Big Powers step back the world seems to be at the cusp of a most disastrous Military and economic disaster.
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